IFIS-整合型圖像使用者介面之預測資訊系統
IFIS-Integrated GUI Forecasting Information System

邵曰仁，王咨淵、張瑋倫            

　

摘要/Abstract

近年來，由於我國經濟快速的發展與成長，因而正確且及時的決策，對產業界而言，是很重要的致勝因素。有效預測是決策的最主要依據之一；因而，如何獲得有效的預測，可說是產業界的一項重要課題。建立時間序列預測模式，可以應用於許多實務預測分析；然而，建立時間序列預測模式需要專業的統計知識，因此，非統計背景的人士，不易或根本無法建立預測模式。上述限制的有效解決方法，即是將統計的知識整合於資訊系統的設計；因此，本文發展了一個整合型預測資訊系統，(Integrated Forecasting Information System；簡稱IFIS)，此系統以Visual Basic為主體，並整合了Statistica、MS Office、資料庫等不同的軟體，以達成簡化統計分析及使用者親切之目的。本文並以一實務公司作為範例，說明如何應用IFIS，建立預測模式，並評估各模式的預測能力。

關鍵詞：時間序列、預測、資訊系統、整合


Recently, due to the rapid growth of domestic economic development, the precise and quick decision becomes an important factor for a company's success. Since a good decision is based on reliable forecasts, the capture of reliable forecasts is an important issue for industries. The development of time series models is useful for practical forecasting analysis. However, this development needs Statistics background, and it is a difficult task for people who lack of Statistics knowledge. In order to release this difficulty, this study develops an integrated forecasting information system (IFIS) which combines Visual Basic, Statistica, MS Office, and Database software. This study applies IFIS to develop the forecast models for a practical company. In addition, this study evaluates the forecast capability for those models.

Keywords: Time Series, Forecasting, Information System, Integration

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